Stock Portf #2-4, always holding stocks or a stock ETF
Stock Portfolio 2-4 universe is comprised of 67 stocks and 1 ETF fund. Why 2-4 you might ask- Its stock universe # 2 and the system picks 4 stocks each month. The stocks are from the Nasdaq 100, excluding those without enough history or any with data integrity issues. The group is selected to provide great returns throughout the market cycle and a diversity of correlation values to allow protection in downturns. We think the long term performance potential of this portfolio is exciting and any statement like that comes with risk. This is the most volatile portfolio we offer, there are lower risk options. Hopefully our risk metrics can guide the user. The easiest way to compare the different portfolios for risk and risk adjusted return is on the home page. Our goal is providing a rotation strategy for better returns and smaller drawdowns than just buying all of them and holding them. Not that buying and holding this well diversified portfolio is a bad idea at all, its just that we think we can do much better.
Rotation System Results vs the SPY. Hover mouse for details.
Risk Adjusted Return metrics- Stock/ETF Portfolio 2-4 with Rotation, Compared to SPY over the same period
MAR and Sharpe ratio Risk Adjusted Return. Our favorite Risk Adj. Return Metric is MAR= (CAGR/Drawdown), while Sharpe ratio is the more commonly found risk adjusted metric. Sharpe= (CAGR-risk free rate(3%))/volatility. The reason we prefer MAR is that it penalizes return based on drawdowns- No one wants big drawdowns, we might need to take money out during a drawdown or we might lose faith during a drawdown and sell. The Sharpe penalizes for volatility which is associated with risk. However the only "bad" volatility is negative volatility and typically negative and positive volatility are not separated. Higher returns = higher volatility, everything else being equal, and we do want higher returns, right? However, the Sharpe ratio is included and our system scores high Sharpes.
See below for the ticker list.
Ticker List- Stock/ETF Portfolio 2-4
If anything is blank, either it was not available from the data source, or it does not apply (ie if no dividend, it will be blank, ETF funds don't report fundamentals or sectors)
| Ticker | Name | Share price | Div yld | PE Ratio | Price/Book | half yr perf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 334.06 | 1.90 | NaN | NaN | 34.57 |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 112.00 | 0.72 | 34.51 | 27.09 | 82.88 |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | 471.35 | NaN | 62.76 | 21.05 | 67.11 |
| ADI | Analog Devices, Inc. | 173.74 | 1.60 | 46.89 | 2.20 | 5.45 |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | 133.44 | 2.76 | 23.21 | 9.84 | 1.24 |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | 227.48 | NaN | 136.24 | 736.13 | 67.79 |
| AKAM | Akamai Technologies, Inc. | 106.49 | NaN | 32.22 | 4.42 | 32.84 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | 55.00 | 1.60 | 16.01 | 5.27 | 22.19 |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | 3116.22 | NaN | 122.04 | 21.53 | 89.38 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 75.29 | 0.00 | 105.43 | 26.74 | 55.49 |
| ANSS | ANSYS Inc | 365.36 | NaN | 70.06 | 7.49 | 14.22 |
| ATVI | Activision Blizzard, Inc. | 77.97 | 0.52 | 33.76 | 4.46 | 44.96 |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 12.03 | 5.68 | NaN | 1.01 | 90.46 |
| BIIB | Biogen Inc. | 269.91 | NaN | 7.81 | 3.78 | -0.88 |
| BMRN | BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 72.05 | NaN | 109.22 | 4.01 | -6.32 |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 1783.74 | NaN | 30.69 | 18.59 | 41.88 |
| CERN | Cerner Corporation | 70.95 | 1.02 | 42.45 | 5.34 | 8.81 |
| CHKP | Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. | 118.27 | NaN | 20.75 | 4.90 | 43.94 |
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 98.66 | 2.07 | 28.71 | 7.81 | 63.95 |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | 44.67 | 2.09 | 17.65 | 2.41 | 25.99 |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 339.13 | 0.82 | 40.13 | 8.94 | 21.33 |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 39.88 | 3.64 | 15.02 | 4.41 | 19.19 |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 68.18 | 1.34 | 22.16 | 3.23 | 33.85 |
| CTXS | Citrix Systems, Inc. | 132.37 | 1.04 | 22.80 | NaN | 28.38 |
| DISCA | Discovery, Inc. | 22.83 | NaN | 11.86 | 1.21 | 5.25 |
| DISH | DISH Network Corporation | 32.10 | NaN | 14.20 | 1.38 | 61.66 |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 90.05 | NaN | 24.17 | 3.14 | 28.29 |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 52.77 | 1.22 | 19.12 | 12.67 | 58.40 |
| EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 90.36 | 1.17 | 25.21 | 6.84 | 42.87 |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 44.03 | 2.27 | 30.30 | 9.05 | 42.40 |
| FISV | Fiserv, Inc. | 93.06 | NaN | 75.58 | 2.02 | 0.08 |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 65.58 | 4.27 | NaN | 4.44 | -7.01 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | 1515.76 | NaN | 34.51 | 5.02 | 37.29 |
| GRMN | Garmin Ltd. | 100.05 | 2.45 | 20.36 | 4.00 | 36.39 |
| HSIC | Henry Schein, Inc. | 64.37 | NaN | 16.00 | 3.03 | 15.78 |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | 349.93 | NaN | 74.08 | 11.15 | 55.01 |
| INCY | Incyte Corporation | 88.00 | NaN | NaN | 8.19 | 29.76 |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | 49.28 | 2.70 | 9.01 | 2.54 | 7.51 |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 315.00 | 0.74 | 46.32 | 16.38 | 34.65 |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 702.54 | NaN | 74.30 | 9.43 | 54.22 |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 171.94 | 2.08 | 22.50 | 10.08 | 38.11 |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 293.99 | 1.75 | 19.67 | 8.36 | 25.08 |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 99.26 | NaN | 72.32 | NaN | 7.12 |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 204.03 | 0.99 | 35.63 | 13.16 | 47.68 |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | 482.03 | NaN | 85.15 | 22.68 | 52.47 |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 44.09 | 4.33 | 12.82 | 34.40 | 23.56 |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 486.58 | 0.13 | 90.30 | 21.80 | 127.67 |
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | 474.65 | NaN | 23.00 | 59.10 | 42.08 |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | 74.99 | 3.29 | 24.75 | 9.70 | 13.30 |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | 83.89 | 1.55 | 17.47 | 2.94 | 39.91 |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 544.75 | NaN | 21.30 | 6.66 | 27.37 |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | 90.22 | NaN | 35.16 | 11.34 | -0.70 |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | 85.27 | 1.93 | 76.68 | NaN | 36.68 |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 61.26 | NaN | NaN | 2.45 | 25.32 |
| STX | Seagate Technology plc | 46.54 | 5.66 | 12.12 | 6.66 | 3.10 |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 136.15 | 1.48 | 29.42 | 5.40 | 67.88 |
| NLOK | NortonLifeLock Inc. | 21.13 | 2.23 | 20.81 | NaN | 30.19 |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | 137.65 | 1.16 | 23.60 | 9.42 | 80.11 |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 136.37 | 2.62 | 25.73 | 16.45 | 40.66 |
| VOD | Vodafone Group Plc | 14.12 | 6.94 | NaN | 0.54 | 4.25 |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 257.96 | NaN | 32.31 | 8.83 | 25.28 |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | 37.37 | NaN | NaN | 1.13 | -7.31 |
| XEL | Xcel Energy Inc. | 68.86 | 2.49 | 25.88 | 2.72 | 12.79 |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | 243.21 | 2.66 | 19.66 | 13.27 | 32.05 |
Buy all tickers and Hold scenario below- NOT ROTATION- to use to compare to rotation strategy. Includes re-balancing. This list does fine buy and hold! Drawdown is significant though.
Buy All Tickers Case- NOT Rotation
Rotation strategy shown below. This strategy ranks the top two tickers and only holds two tickers each month. If the top ranked tickers are not held already at the first of the month, funds are liquidated and top tickers are purchased. If one decides to follow this system, there is no question of when to buy or sell- its only at the first of each of month and only hold two tickers. The system assumes trades are done at the end of trading on the first trading day of each month. This is pretty standard for tracking results in the industry. Of course the user will not be able to both buy and sell at the last instant of the trading day. This is not a big deal in our opinion. The important thing is to know what the system assumes when tracking performance and we feel its best to minimize the time between selling and buying to stay invested. We like to use limit orders for both buys and sells to minimize the chance of getting on the wrong side of a spread that's too wide. Your broker can explain how to use limit orders. For performance tracking we use the actual closing prices, and not real world trades which allows us to automate and backtest.
Rotation System- buy top four ranked funds each month
Yearly summary up to current year shown below. This is why we love active asset rotation vs. buy and hold.
Yearly Summary for Rotation System, now including YTD
| Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotation % Return | 46.52 | -2.60 | 47.16 | 34.87 | 2.69 | 20.65 | 87.83 | 33.13 | 18.37 | 3.64 | 40.27 | 5.02 | 10.29 | 30.92 | 17.57 | -3.43 | 32.63 | 12.21 |
| SPY % Return | 2.30 | -35.86 | 21.91 | 12.11 | 0.35 | 14.56 | 25.24 | 12.31 | -2.15 | 12.05 | 19.33 | -6.92 | 29.85 | 13.52 | 29.53 | -20.28 | 24.11 | 20.31 |
| Improvement | 44.22 | 33.26 | 25.25 | 22.77 | 2.33 | 6.09 | 62.59 | 20.83 | 20.51 | -8.41 | 20.94 | 11.94 | -19.57 | 17.40 | -11.96 | 16.85 | 8.52 | -8.10 |
By month history shown below. This plot gives the viewer a feel for month by month success and failure rates. No this is not a magic machine that turns a profit every month! Remember the "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is" phrase wise people have warned you about. We feel we have something really valuable here but be sure to read our disclaimers in terms of service. Many investment tip services will make claims of "we made XXX% on ticker ABC and XX% on ticker DEF" type of history but don't mention their losses. We try to get the whole story out there for a full review, before the user spends a dime.
Month by Month Results
Statistical summary below.
Statistical Summary
| Investment | Total Ret | CAGR | Drawdown | MAR(CAGR/dd) | Sharpe(3%) | mnth > 0% | ave Mnth | Vol(Ann) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotation % | 3769.11 | 22.75 | -25.95 | 0.88 | 0.93 | 65.42 | 1.91 | 21.20 |
| SPY % | 301.38 | 8.10 | -54.24 | 0.15 | 0.29 | 64.49 | 0.78 | 17.59 |
We have more details in our members only page, such as each and every ticker buy and sell history with performance metrics along the way in a sortable table that's fun to explore. We of course have the new picks each month over there as well.
To begin using this portfolio and be able to view our other offerings visit our product page.